🔗 Share this article

At first, the former US president appeared to take a firm position regarding Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" during the summer if Putin persisted hindering ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or European input, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal effectively weaken that essential autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, the former president continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the leader. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's obvious desire to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been unable to seize in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that represent a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All radical belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "strong joint defense action" in case Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing forces on the nation's land, effectively preventing the security presence, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. But in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future invasion – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of alliance members, like Trump, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not