UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.